2026 World Cup — locked final prediction

Locked 2026-07-15, ahead of the semi-finals and final. Model: Elo→Poisson (post-QF Elo, 11 Jul — France 2163 · Spain 2190 · England 2097 · Argentina 2177). These numbers do not move; this file's sha256 is published in the ledger and timestamped publicly before kickoff.

Semi-finals — who reaches Sunday

• France to reach the final 46.1% · Spain 53.9% (90-min: France 32.7% / draw 26.9% / Spain 40.4%)
• England to reach the final 38.7% · Argentina 61.3% (90-min: England 25.7% / draw 26.1% / Argentina 48.3%)

Champion probability

• Argentina 30.6%
• Spain 30.3%
• France 24.2%
• England 14.9%

Conditional final prediction (90-minute W/D/L)

• If France v England: France 46.2% / draw 26.4% / England 27.4%
• If France v Argentina: France 34.5% / draw 27.0% / Argentina 38.5%
• If Spain v England: Spain 50.2% / draw 25.7% / England 24.1%
• If Spain v Argentina: Spain 38.4% / draw 27.0% / Argentina 34.6%