🔒 Locked 2026-07-16 09:05 UTC — before the final

2026 World Cup Final

Spain vs Argentina

Kickoff Sun 19 Jul 2026, 19:00 UTC · neutral venue

Model inputs

Current national-team Elo (eloratings.net, post-semifinal, retrieved 2026-07-16): Spain 2232 · Argentina 2200. Difference +32 to Spain → win-expectation 54.6%.

90-minute result

Spain win

41.1%

Draw

26.9%

Argentina win

32.0%

Probability to lift the trophy

Spain 54.6%

Argentina 45.4%

A 90-minute draw is resolved through extra time / penalties in proportion to Elo win-expectation — exactly as the semifinal lock resolved ties.

Likeliest scorelines (90 min)

1–1 12.7%
1–0 11.1%
0–1 9.5%
2–1 8.6%
0–0 8.2%

Model vs market

Model: Spain 54.6% to lift the trophy. Market: mkt n/a — no head-to-head figure is published for the actual Spain–Argentina final. Opta’s post-semifinal supercomputer number (Spain 56.15% to win the tournament) assumed a Spain–England final; it is a tournament-win probability against the wrong opponent, not a Spain-v-Argentina match figure, so it is not shown. Nothing is approximated.

How the semifinal lock graded

Spain 53.9% to reach the final → won 2–0 ✓
Argentina 61.3% to reach the final → won 2–1 ✓
Opta’s tournament favourite, France (34.0%), eliminated by Spain

A Spain–Argentina final vindicates the model’s scepticism of France either way. The model’s own outright favourite was Argentina (30.6%); that call is vindicated only if Argentina win on Sunday.

Third-place play-off — France v England (same method)

90-minute: France 43.4% / draw 26.7% / England 29.9%. To win (extra time / penalties resolved by Elo): France 56.7% / England 43.3%. Elo: France 2121 · England 2074.

1–1 12.7%
1–0 11.4%
0–1 9.1%
2–1 8.8%
0–0 8.2%

This match kicks off before the final — Sun 07:00 AEST. The lock ships ahead of it.