The chalk bracket — what if the favourite always won?

Replay each World Cup's knockout stage with the favourite advancing every round, by three definitions of favourite: pre-tournament Elo, total squad market value, and the Paper Index (pedigree composite). Since the favourite wins every match, the chalk champion is simply the highest-rated team to reach the knockouts, and the runner-up is the highest in the other half of the real draw. ✓ marks a chalk champion who actually won. Champions the hard way →

Elo favourite

1/6

won the actual title

Squad value favourite

4/5

won the actual title

Paper Index favourite

1/6

won the actual title

Read those tiles as: the World Cup is chaos — the pre-tournament favourite lifts the trophy only a minority of the time; the bracket almost always produces at least one giant-killing the ratings never saw.

Year	Actual champion	Elo chalk	Squad-value chalk	Paper-Index chalk
2002	🇧🇷 Brazil	🇮🇹 Italy def. England	n/a	🇪🇸 Spain def. England
2006	🇮🇹 Italy	🇧🇷 Brazil def. Italy	🇮🇹 Italy ✓ def. Brazil	🇫🇷 France def. Italy
2010	🇪🇸 Spain	🇪🇸 Spain ✓ def. Brazil	🇪🇸 Spain ✓ def. Brazil	🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 England def. Brazil
2014	🇩🇪 Germany	🇧🇷 Brazil def. Argentina	🇩🇪 Germany ✓ def. Argentina	🇩🇪 Germany ✓ def. Argentina
2018	🇫🇷 France	🇧🇷 Brazil def. Spain	🇫🇷 France ✓ def. Spain	🇪🇸 Spain def. Argentina
2022	🇦🇷 Argentina	🇧🇷 Brazil def. Spain	🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 England def. Brazil	🇫🇷 France def. Brazil
2026	in progress	🇪🇸 Spain def. Argentina	🇫🇷 France def. England	🇵🇹 Portugal def. Argentina

“Chalk” = betting slang for the favourite. Elo is each team's dated pre-tournament rating; squad value and Paper Index are frozen at kick-off. 2002 has no market values (Squad-value column n/a). 2026 is in progress — its chalk columns are the projected winner from the current bracket. Favourite = higher value; ties break to the first team. No draws in a knockout — the favourite simply advances.

Full chalk, tournament by tournament

Expand any year for its full Elo chalk run — the group tables plus the knockout bracket, with the favourite advancing every round. The group stage takes the Elo model's result for each match: the favourite wins, or a draw when neither side is favoured by more than a coin-flip (the two win probabilities differ by less than the ~27% draw chance — roughly an Elo gap of 100 or under). Top two of each group advance, plus the eight best third-placed teams in the 48-team 2026. Across 2002–2026 that picks 73% of the teams that actually reached the knockouts — the group stage is more chalk than the bracket, but every tournament still has its flops. Draws are Elo-only (squad value and the Paper Index have no draw model). Badges: ✓ also advanced in reality, ✗ chalk-qualified but crashed out, ▲ reached the knockouts the chalk didn't expect.

2002 — full Elo chalk (groups + bracket); chalk matched 11/16 of the actual qualifiers

Chalk expected through, actually out: 🇫🇷 France, 🇦🇷 Argentina, 🇵🇹 Portugal, 🇭🇷 Croatia, 🇸🇮 Slovenia.

Actually advanced, chalk didn't pick: 🇸🇪 Sweden, 🇲🇽 Mexico, 🇰🇷 South Korea, 🇵🇾 Paraguay, 🇸🇳 Senegal.

Group stage — chalk standings

Group 1

#	Team	W	D	L	Pts
1	🇫🇷 France ✗	3	0	0	9
2	🇩🇰 Denmark ✓	1	1	1	4
3	🇺🇾 Uruguay	0	2	1	2
4	🇸🇳 Senegal ▲	0	1	2	1

Group 2

#	Team	W	D	L	Pts
1	🇦🇷 Argentina ✗	3	0	0	9
2	🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 England ✓	1	1	1	4
3	🇸🇪 Sweden ▲	1	1	1	4
4	🇳🇬 Nigeria	0	0	3	0

Group 3

#	Team	W	D	L	Pts
1	🇮🇹 Italy ✓	3	0	0	9
2	🇭🇷 Croatia ✗	1	1	1	4
3	🇲🇽 Mexico ▲	1	1	1	4
4	🇪🇨 Ecuador	0	0	3	0

Group 4

#	Team	W	D	L	Pts
1	🇵🇹 Portugal ✗	3	0	0	9
2	🇺🇸 United States ✓	1	1	1	4
3	🇰🇷 South Korea ▲	0	2	1	2
4	🇵🇱 Poland	0	1	2	1

Group 5

#	Team	W	D	L	Pts
1	🇪🇸 Spain ✓	3	0	0	9
2	🇸🇮 Slovenia ✗	0	2	1	2
3	🇵🇾 Paraguay ▲	0	2	1	2
4	🇿🇦 South Africa	0	2	1	2

Group 6

#	Team	W	D	L	Pts
1	🇮🇪 Republic of Ireland ✓	1	2	0	5
2	🇩🇪 Germany ✓	1	2	0	5
3	🇨🇲 Cameroon	1	2	0	5
4	🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia	0	0	3	0

Group 7

#	Team	W	D	L	Pts
1	🇧🇷 Brazil ✓	3	0	0	9
2	🇹🇷 Turkey ✓	1	1	1	4
3	🇨🇷 Costa Rica	0	2	1	2
4	🇨🇳 China PR	0	1	2	1

Group 8

#	Team	W	D	L	Pts
1	🇯🇵 Japan ✓	1	2	0	5
2	🇧🇪 Belgium ✓	1	2	0	5
3	🇷🇺 Russia	1	2	0	5
4	🇹🇳 Tunisia	0	0	3	0

Knockout — chalk bracket

Elo chalk champion: 🇮🇹 Italy — the favourite advancing every round.

R16

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 England

🇩🇰 Denmark

🇩🇪 Germany

🇵🇾 Paraguay

🇮🇪 Republic of Ireland

🇪🇸 Spain

🇸🇳 Senegal

🇸🇪 Sweden

🇧🇷 Brazil

🇧🇪 Belgium

🇺🇸 United States

🇲🇽 Mexico

🇯🇵 Japan

🇹🇷 Turkey

🇰🇷 South Korea

🇮🇹 Italy

🇧🇷 Brazil

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 England

🇩🇪 Germany

🇲🇽 Mexico

🇮🇹 Italy

🇪🇸 Spain

🇯🇵 Japan

🇸🇪 Sweden

🇮🇹 Italy

🇩🇪 Germany

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 England

🇸🇪 Sweden

Final

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 England

🇮🇹 Italy

2006 — full Elo chalk (groups + bracket); chalk matched 13/16 of the actual qualifiers

Chalk expected through, actually out: 🇨🇿 Czech Republic, 🇭🇷 Croatia, 🇵🇱 Poland.

Actually advanced, chalk didn't pick: 🇦🇺 Australia, 🇪🇨 Ecuador, 🇬🇭 Ghana.

Group stage — chalk standings

Group 1

#	Team	W	D	L	Pts
1	🇧🇷 Brazil ✓	3	0	0	9
2	🇭🇷 Croatia ✗	0	2	1	2
3	🇦🇺 Australia ▲	0	2	1	2
4	🇯🇵 Japan	0	2	1	2

Group 2

#	Team	W	D	L	Pts
1	🇳🇱 Netherlands ✓	2	1	0	7
2	🇦🇷 Argentina ✓	2	1	0	7
3	Serbia and Montenegro	0	1	2	1
4	🇨🇮 Ivory Coast	0	1	2	1

Group 3

#	Team	W	D	L	Pts
1	🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 England ✓	3	0	0	9
2	🇸🇪 Sweden ✓	1	1	1	4
3	🇵🇾 Paraguay	1	1	1	4
4	🇹🇹 Trinidad and Tobago	0	0	3	0

Group 4

#	Team	W	D	L	Pts
1	🇨🇿 Czech Republic ✗	2	1	0	7
2	🇮🇹 Italy ✓	2	1	0	7
3	🇺🇸 United States	1	0	2	3
4	🇬🇭 Ghana ▲	0	0	3	0

Group 5

#	Team	W	D	L	Pts
1	🇫🇷 France ✓	3	0	0	9
2	🇨🇭 Switzerland ✓	1	1	1	4
3	🇰🇷 South Korea	1	1	1	4
4	🇹🇬 Togo	0	0	3	0

Group 6

#	Team	W	L	Pts
1	🇪🇸 Spain ✓	3	0	9
2	🇺🇦 Ukraine ✓	2	1	6
3	🇹🇳 Tunisia	1	2	3
4	🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia	0	3	0

Group 7

#	Team	W	D	L	Pts
1	🇵🇹 Portugal ✓	2	1	0	7
2	🇲🇽 Mexico ✓	1	2	0	5
3	🇮🇷 Iran	1	1	1	4
4	🇦🇴 Angola	0	0	3	0

Group 8

#	Team	W	D	L	Pts
1	🇩🇪 Germany ✓	3	0	0	9
2	🇵🇱 Poland ✗	1	1	1	4
3	🇨🇷 Costa Rica	0	2	1	2
4	🇪🇨 Ecuador ▲	0	1	2	1

Knockout — chalk bracket

Elo chalk champion: 🇧🇷 Brazil — the favourite advancing every round.

R16

🇦🇷 Argentina

🇲🇽 Mexico

🇩🇪 Germany

🇸🇪 Sweden

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 England

🇪🇨 Ecuador

🇵🇹 Portugal

🇳🇱 Netherlands

🇮🇹 Italy

🇦🇺 Australia

🇨🇭 Switzerland

🇺🇦 Ukraine

🇧🇷 Brazil

🇬🇭 Ghana

🇫🇷 France

🇪🇸 Spain

🇩🇪 Germany

🇦🇷 Argentina

🇮🇹 Italy

🇨🇭 Switzerland

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 England

🇳🇱 Netherlands

🇫🇷 France

🇧🇷 Brazil

🇦🇷 Argentina

🇮🇹 Italy

🇧🇷 Brazil

🇳🇱 Netherlands

Final

🇧🇷 Brazil

🇮🇹 Italy

2010 — full Elo chalk (groups + bracket); chalk matched 12/16 of the actual qualifiers

Chalk expected through, actually out: 🇮🇹 Italy, 🇫🇷 France, 🇷🇸 Serbia, 🇩🇰 Denmark.

Actually advanced, chalk didn't pick: 🇺🇾 Uruguay, 🇬🇭 Ghana, 🇯🇵 Japan, 🇸🇰 Slovakia.

Group stage — chalk standings

Group 1

#	Team	W	D	L	Pts
1	🇪🇸 Spain ✓	3	0	0	9
2	🇨🇱 Chile ✓	1	1	1	4
3	🇨🇭 Switzerland	1	1	1	4
4	🇭🇳 Honduras	0	0	3	0

Group 2

#	Team	W	L	Pts
1	🇧🇷 Brazil ✓	3	0	9
2	🇵🇹 Portugal ✓	2	1	6
3	🇨🇮 Ivory Coast	1	2	3
4	🇰🇵 North Korea	0	3	0

Group 3

#	Team	W	D	L	Pts
1	🇳🇱 Netherlands ✓	3	0	0	9
2	🇩🇰 Denmark ✗	1	1	1	4
3	🇯🇵 Japan ▲	0	2	1	2
4	🇨🇲 Cameroon	0	1	2	1

Group 4

#	Team	W	L	Pts
1	🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 England ✓	3	0	9
2	🇺🇸 United States ✓	2	1	6
3	🇸🇮 Slovenia	1	2	3
4	🇩🇿 Algeria	0	3	0

Group 5

#	Team	W	D	L	Pts
1	🇩🇪 Germany ✓	3	0	0	9
2	🇷🇸 Serbia ✗	2	0	1	6
3	🇦🇺 Australia	0	1	2	1
4	🇬🇭 Ghana ▲	0	1	2	1

Group 6

#	Team	W	L	Pts
1	🇮🇹 Italy ✗	3	0	9
2	🇵🇾 Paraguay ✓	2	1	6
3	🇸🇰 Slovakia ▲	1	2	3
4	🇳🇿 New Zealand	0	3	0

Group 7

#	Team	W	D	L	Pts
1	🇦🇷 Argentina ✓	3	0	0	9
2	🇰🇷 South Korea ✓	1	1	1	4
3	🇬🇷 Greece	0	2	1	2
4	🇳🇬 Nigeria	0	1	2	1

Group 8

#	Team	W	D	L	Pts
1	🇲🇽 Mexico ✓	1	2	0	5
2	🇫🇷 France ✗	1	2	0	5
3	🇺🇾 Uruguay ▲	1	2	0	5
4	🇿🇦 South Africa	0	0	3	0

Knockout — chalk bracket

Elo chalk champion: 🇪🇸 Spain — the favourite advancing every round.

R16

🇬🇭 Ghana

🇺🇸 United States

🇺🇾 Uruguay

🇰🇷 South Korea

🇦🇷 Argentina

🇲🇽 Mexico

🇩🇪 Germany

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 England

🇧🇷 Brazil

🇨🇱 Chile

🇳🇱 Netherlands

🇸🇰 Slovakia

🇯🇵 Japan

🇵🇾 Paraguay

🇪🇸 Spain

🇵🇹 Portugal

🇺🇸 United States

🇺🇾 Uruguay

🇳🇱 Netherlands

🇧🇷 Brazil

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 England

🇦🇷 Argentina

🇪🇸 Spain

🇵🇾 Paraguay

🇧🇷 Brazil

🇺🇾 Uruguay

🇪🇸 Spain

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 England

Final

🇪🇸 Spain

🇧🇷 Brazil

2014 — full Elo chalk (groups + bracket); chalk matched 10/16 of the actual qualifiers

Chalk expected through, actually out: 🇪🇸 Spain, 🇵🇹 Portugal, 🇮🇹 Italy, 🇷🇺 Russia, 🇭🇷 Croatia, 🇧🇦 Bosnia and Herzegovina.

Actually advanced, chalk didn't pick: 🇳🇱 Netherlands, 🇺🇸 United States, 🇲🇽 Mexico, 🇳🇬 Nigeria, 🇨🇷 Costa Rica, 🇩🇿 Algeria.

Group stage — chalk standings

Group 1

#	Team	W	D	L	Pts
1	🇧🇷 Brazil ✓	3	0	0	9
2	🇭🇷 Croatia ✗	1	1	1	4
3	🇲🇽 Mexico ▲	1	1	1	4
4	🇨🇲 Cameroon	0	0	3	0

Group 2

#	Team	W	D	L	Pts
1	🇪🇸 Spain ✗	2	1	0	7
2	🇨🇱 Chile ✓	1	2	0	5
3	🇳🇱 Netherlands ▲	1	1	1	4
4	🇦🇺 Australia	0	0	3	0

Group 3

#	Team	W	D	L	Pts
1	🇩🇪 Germany ✓	3	0	0	9
2	🇵🇹 Portugal ✗	1	1	1	4
3	🇺🇸 United States ▲	1	1	1	4
4	🇬🇭 Ghana	0	0	3	0

Group 4

#	Team	W	D	L	Pts
1	🇦🇷 Argentina ✓	3	0	0	9
2	🇧🇦 Bosnia and Herzegovina ✗	0	2	1	2
3	🇳🇬 Nigeria ▲	0	2	1	2
4	🇮🇷 Iran	0	2	1	2

Group 5

#	Team	W	D	L	Pts
1	🇨🇴 Colombia ✓	3	0	0	9
2	🇬🇷 Greece ✓	0	2	1	2
3	🇯🇵 Japan	0	2	1	2
4	🇨🇮 Ivory Coast	0	2	1	2

Group 6

#	Team	W	D	L	Pts
1	🇺🇾 Uruguay ✓	1	2	0	5
2	🇮🇹 Italy ✗	1	2	0	5
3	🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 England	0	3	0	3
4	🇨🇷 Costa Rica ▲	0	1	2	1

Group 7

#	Team	W	D	L	Pts
1	🇫🇷 France ✓	2	1	0	7
2	🇨🇭 Switzerland ✓	1	2	0	5
3	🇪🇨 Ecuador	1	1	1	4
4	🇭🇳 Honduras	0	0	3	0

Group 8

#	Team	W	D	L	Pts
1	🇧🇪 Belgium ✓	2	1	0	7
2	🇷🇺 Russia ✗	2	1	0	7
3	🇰🇷 South Korea	0	1	2	1
4	🇩🇿 Algeria ▲	0	1	2	1

Knockout — chalk bracket

Elo chalk champion: 🇧🇷 Brazil — the favourite advancing every round.

R16

🇧🇷 Brazil

🇨🇱 Chile

🇨🇴 Colombia

🇺🇾 Uruguay

🇨🇷 Costa Rica

🇬🇷 Greece

🇳🇱 Netherlands

🇲🇽 Mexico

🇫🇷 France

🇳🇬 Nigeria

🇩🇪 Germany

🇩🇿 Algeria

🇦🇷 Argentina

🇨🇭 Switzerland

🇧🇪 Belgium

🇺🇸 United States

🇧🇷 Brazil

🇨🇴 Colombia

🇩🇪 Germany

🇫🇷 France

🇦🇷 Argentina

🇺🇸 United States

🇬🇷 Greece

🇳🇱 Netherlands

🇧🇷 Brazil

🇩🇪 Germany

🇦🇷 Argentina

🇳🇱 Netherlands

Final

🇧🇷 Brazil

🇦🇷 Argentina

2018 — full Elo chalk (groups + bracket); chalk matched 13/16 of the actual qualifiers

Chalk expected through, actually out: 🇩🇪 Germany, 🇵🇪 Peru, 🇵🇱 Poland.

Actually advanced, chalk didn't pick: 🇩🇰 Denmark, 🇸🇪 Sweden, 🇯🇵 Japan.

Group stage — chalk standings

Group 1

#	Team	W	D	L	Pts
1	🇧🇷 Brazil ✓	3	0	0	9
2	🇨🇭 Switzerland ✓	2	0	1	6
3	🇷🇸 Serbia	0	1	2	1
4	🇨🇷 Costa Rica	0	1	2	1

Group 2

#	Team	W	D	L	Pts
1	🇩🇪 Germany ✗	3	0	0	9
2	🇲🇽 Mexico ✓	2	0	1	6
3	🇸🇪 Sweden ▲	0	1	2	1
4	🇰🇷 South Korea	0	1	2	1

Group 3

#	Team	W	D	L	Pts
1	🇪🇸 Spain ✓	2	1	0	7
2	🇵🇹 Portugal ✓	2	1	0	7
3	🇮🇷 Iran	0	1	2	1
4	🇲🇦 Morocco	0	1	2	1

Group 4

#	Team	W	D	L	Pts
1	🇫🇷 France ✓	3	0	0	9
2	🇵🇪 Peru ✗	1	1	1	4
3	🇩🇰 Denmark ▲	1	1	1	4
4	🇦🇺 Australia	0	0	3	0

Group 5

#	Team	W	D	L	Pts
1	🇦🇷 Argentina ✓	2	1	0	7
2	🇭🇷 Croatia ✓	2	1	0	7
3	🇮🇸 Iceland	1	0	2	3
4	🇳🇬 Nigeria	0	0	3	0

Group 6

#	Team	W	D	L	Pts
1	🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 England ✓	2	1	0	7
2	🇧🇪 Belgium ✓	2	1	0	7
3	🇵🇦 Panama	0	1	2	1
4	🇹🇳 Tunisia	0	1	2	1

Group 7

#	Team	W	D	L	Pts
1	🇨🇴 Colombia ✓	2	1	0	7
2	🇵🇱 Poland ✗	0	3	0	3
3	🇸🇳 Senegal	0	2	1	2
4	🇯🇵 Japan ▲	0	2	1	2

Group 8

#	Team	W	D	L	Pts
1	🇺🇾 Uruguay ✓	3	0	0	9
2	🇷🇺 Russia ✓	0	2	1	2
3	🇪🇬 Egypt	0	2	1	2
4	🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia	0	2	1	2

Knockout — chalk bracket

Elo chalk champion: 🇧🇷 Brazil — the favourite advancing every round.

R16

🇫🇷 France

🇦🇷 Argentina

🇺🇾 Uruguay

🇵🇹 Portugal

🇭🇷 Croatia

🇩🇰 Denmark

🇷🇺 Russia

🇪🇸 Spain

🇧🇪 Belgium

🇯🇵 Japan

🇧🇷 Brazil

🇲🇽 Mexico

🇨🇴 Colombia

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 England

🇸🇪 Sweden

🇨🇭 Switzerland

🇧🇪 Belgium

🇧🇷 Brazil

🇫🇷 France

🇵🇹 Portugal

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 England

🇨🇭 Switzerland

🇪🇸 Spain

🇩🇰 Denmark

🇫🇷 France

🇧🇷 Brazil

🇪🇸 Spain

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 England

Final

🇧🇷 Brazil

🇪🇸 Spain

2022 — full Elo chalk (groups + bracket); chalk matched 10/16 of the actual qualifiers

Chalk expected through, actually out: 🇧🇪 Belgium, 🇩🇰 Denmark, 🇩🇪 Germany, 🇺🇾 Uruguay, 🇪🇨 Ecuador, 🇮🇷 Iran.

Actually advanced, chalk didn't pick: 🇺🇸 United States, 🇯🇵 Japan, 🇰🇷 South Korea, 🇲🇦 Morocco, 🇦🇺 Australia, 🇸🇳 Senegal.

Group stage — chalk standings

Group 1

#	Team	W	D	L	Pts
1	🇧🇷 Brazil ✓	3	0	0	9
2	🇨🇭 Switzerland ✓	1	1	1	4
3	🇷🇸 Serbia	1	1	1	4
4	🇨🇲 Cameroon	0	0	3	0

Group 2

#	Team	W	D	L	Pts
1	🇦🇷 Argentina ✓	3	0	0	9
2	🇵🇱 Poland ✓	1	1	1	4
3	🇲🇽 Mexico	1	1	1	4
4	🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia	0	0	3	0

Group 3

#	Team	W	L	Pts
1	🇪🇸 Spain ✓	3	0	9
2	🇩🇪 Germany ✗	2	1	6
3	🇯🇵 Japan ▲	1	2	3
4	🇨🇷 Costa Rica	0	3	0

Group 4

#	Team	W	D	L	Pts
1	🇳🇱 Netherlands ✓	3	0	0	9
2	🇪🇨 Ecuador ✗	2	0	1	6
3	🇸🇳 Senegal ▲	0	1	2	1
4	🇶🇦 Qatar	0	1	2	1

Group 5

#	Team	W	D	L	Pts
1	🇧🇪 Belgium ✗	2	1	0	7
2	🇭🇷 Croatia ✓	2	1	0	7
3	🇲🇦 Morocco ▲	1	0	2	3
4	🇨🇦 Canada	0	0	3	0

Group 6

#	Team	W	D	L	Pts
1	🇵🇹 Portugal ✓	2	1	0	7
2	🇺🇾 Uruguay ✗	2	1	0	7
3	🇰🇷 South Korea ▲	1	0	2	3
4	🇬🇭 Ghana	0	0	3	0

Group 7

#	Team	W	D	L	Pts
1	🇫🇷 France ✓	2	1	0	7
2	🇩🇰 Denmark ✗	2	1	0	7
3	🇦🇺 Australia ▲	0	1	2	1
4	🇹🇳 Tunisia	0	1	2	1

Group 8

#	Team	W	D	L	Pts
1	🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 England ✓	3	0	0	9
2	🇮🇷 Iran ✗	0	2	1	2
3	🇺🇸 United States ▲	0	2	1	2
4	🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 Wales	0	2	1	2

Knockout — chalk bracket

Elo chalk champion: 🇧🇷 Brazil — the favourite advancing every round.

R16

🇳🇱 Netherlands

🇺🇸 United States

🇦🇷 Argentina

🇦🇺 Australia

🇫🇷 France

🇵🇱 Poland

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 England

🇸🇳 Senegal

🇭🇷 Croatia

🇯🇵 Japan

🇧🇷 Brazil

🇰🇷 South Korea

🇵🇹 Portugal

🇨🇭 Switzerland

🇲🇦 Morocco

🇪🇸 Spain

🇧🇷 Brazil

🇭🇷 Croatia

🇦🇷 Argentina

🇳🇱 Netherlands

🇪🇸 Spain

🇵🇹 Portugal

🇫🇷 France

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 England

🇦🇷 Argentina

🇧🇷 Brazil

🇫🇷 France

🇪🇸 Spain

Final

🇧🇷 Brazil

🇪🇸 Spain

2026 — full Elo chalk (groups + bracket); chalk matched 25/32 of the actual qualifiers

Chalk expected through, actually out: 🇹🇷 Turkey, 🇺🇾 Uruguay, 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 Scotland, 🇮🇷 Iran, 🇰🇷 South Korea, 🇨🇿 Czech Republic, 🇵🇦 Panama.

Actually advanced, chalk didn't pick: 🇦🇺 Australia, 🇺🇸 United States, 🇸🇪 Sweden, 🇨🇩 DR Congo, 🇨🇻 Cape Verde, 🇿🇦 South Africa, 🇬🇭 Ghana.

Group stage — chalk standings

Group 1

#	Team	W	D	L	Pts
1	🇪🇸 Spain ✓	3	0	0	9
2	🇺🇾 Uruguay ✗	2	0	1	6
3	🇨🇻 Cape Verde ▲	0	1	2	1
4	🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia	0	1	2	1

Group 2

#	Team	W	D	L	Pts
1	🇦🇷 Argentina ✓	3	0	0	9
2	🇦🇹 Austria ✓	1	1	1	4
3	🇩🇿 Algeria ✓	1	1	1	4
4	🇯🇴 Jordan	0	0	3	0

Group 3

#	Team	W	D	L	Pts
1	🇫🇷 France ✓	3	0	0	9
2	🇳🇴 Norway ✓	1	1	1	4
3	🇸🇳 Senegal ✓	1	1	1	4
4	🇮🇶 Iraq	0	0	3	0

Group 4

#	Team	W	L	Pts
1	🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 England ✓	3	0	9
2	🇭🇷 Croatia ✓	2	1	6
3	🇵🇦 Panama ✗	1	2	3
4	🇬🇭 Ghana ▲	0	3	0

Group 5

#	Team	W	D	L	Pts
1	🇧🇷 Brazil ✓	3	0	0	9
2	🇲🇦 Morocco ✓	1	1	1	4
3	🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 Scotland ✗	1	1	1	4
4	🇭🇹 Haiti	0	0	3	0

Group 6

#	Team	W	D	L	Pts
1	🇵🇹 Portugal ✓	2	1	0	7
2	🇨🇴 Colombia ✓	2	1	0	7
3	🇺🇿 Uzbekistan	0	1	2	1
4	🇨🇩 DR Congo ▲	0	1	2	1

Group 7

#	Team	W	D	L	Pts
1	🇳🇱 Netherlands ✓	2	1	0	7
2	🇯🇵 Japan ✓	2	1	0	7
3	🇸🇪 Sweden ▲	0	1	2	1
4	🇹🇳 Tunisia	0	1	2	1

Group 8

#	Team	W	D	L	Pts
1	🇪🇨 Ecuador ✓	2	1	0	7
2	🇩🇪 Germany ✓	2	1	0	7
3	🇨🇮 Ivory Coast ✓	1	0	2	3
4	🇨🇼 Curaçao	0	0	3	0

Group 9

#	Team	W	D	L	Pts
1	🇹🇷 Turkey ✗	1	2	0	5
2	🇵🇾 Paraguay ✓	1	2	0	5
3	🇦🇺 Australia ▲	0	2	1	2
4	🇺🇸 United States ▲	0	2	1	2

Group 10

#	Team	W	D	L	Pts
1	🇧🇪 Belgium ✓	3	0	0	9
2	🇮🇷 Iran ✗	1	1	1	4
3	🇪🇬 Egypt ✓	1	1	1	4
4	🇳🇿 New Zealand	0	0	3	0

Group 11

#	Team	W	L	Pts
1	🇨🇭 Switzerland ✓	3	0	9
2	🇨🇦 Canada ✓	2	1	6
3	🇧🇦 Bosnia and Herzegovina ✓	1	2	3
4	🇶🇦 Qatar	0	3	0

Group 12

#	Team	W	D	L	Pts
1	🇲🇽 Mexico ✓	3	0	0	9
2	🇰🇷 South Korea ✗	1	1	1	4
3	🇨🇿 Czech Republic ✗	1	1	1	4
4	🇿🇦 South Africa ▲	0	0	3	0

Knockout — chalk bracket

Elo chalk champion: 🇪🇸 Spain — the favourite advancing every round.

R32

🇨🇦 Canada

🇿🇦 South Africa

🇲🇦 Morocco

🇳🇱 Netherlands

🇩🇪 Germany

🇵🇾 Paraguay

🇧🇷 Brazil

🇯🇵 Japan

🇳🇴 Norway

🇨🇮 Ivory Coast

🇲🇽 Mexico

🇪🇨 Ecuador

🇫🇷 France

🇸🇪 Sweden

🇺🇸 United States

🇧🇦 Bosnia and Herzegovina

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 England

🇨🇩 DR Congo

🇧🇪 Belgium

🇸🇳 Senegal

🇨🇭 Switzerland

🇩🇿 Algeria

🇪🇸 Spain

🇦🇹 Austria

🇵🇹 Portugal

🇭🇷 Croatia

🇨🇴 Colombia

🇬🇭 Ghana

🇦🇺 Australia

🇪🇬 Egypt

🇦🇷 Argentina

🇨🇻 Cape Verde

R16

🇳🇱 Netherlands

🇨🇦 Canada

🇫🇷 France

🇩🇪 Germany

🇳🇴 Norway

🇧🇷 Brazil

🇪🇨 Ecuador

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 England

🇺🇸 United States

🇧🇪 Belgium

🇪🇸 Spain

🇵🇹 Portugal

🇨🇴 Colombia

🇨🇭 Switzerland

🇦🇷 Argentina

🇦🇺 Australia

🇫🇷 France

🇳🇱 Netherlands

🇪🇸 Spain

🇧🇪 Belgium

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 England

🇧🇷 Brazil

🇦🇷 Argentina

🇨🇴 Colombia

🇫🇷 France

🇪🇸 Spain

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 England

🇦🇷 Argentina

Final

🇪🇸 Spain

🇦🇷 Argentina