Over- and under-performance vs Elo

Expected finish is 10,000 Monte-Carlo simulations from each team's dated pre-tournament Elo, through the real group draw, with host home-advantage (+100). over_under = actual − expected outlast_pct, 95% bootstrap CI shown. Elo-baseline model — a squad-augmented v2 follows the final.

Each dot is one squad (2002–2026) — hover/tap for detail, scroll or pinch to zoom, drag to pan, double-click to reset. Above the dashed line = over-performed the Elo baseline; below = under-performed. Click a dot for its squad.

Over-performers

Biggest over-performer · 2002–2026

Morocco 2022 · +0.78

Reached the Semi-final — the Elo baseline expected them to outlast just 12% of the field; they outlasted 90%.

CSV ↓

Team	Reached	Outlast	Exp	Over/under	95% CI
2022 Morocco	Semi-final	0.90	0.12	+0.78	[+0.75, +0.82]
2014 Costa Rica	Quarter-final	0.77	0.06	+0.71	[+0.69, +0.73]
2002 Senegal	Quarter-final	0.77	0.07	+0.70	[+0.68, +0.73]
2010 Ghana	Quarter-final	0.77	0.09	+0.69	[+0.66, +0.71]
2002 Turkey	Semi-final	0.90	0.29	+0.61	[+0.56, +0.66]
2018 Sweden	Quarter-final	0.77	0.20	+0.57	[+0.53, +0.61]
2018 Croatia	Final	0.97	0.40	+0.57	[+0.53, +0.62]
2002 South Korea	Semi-final	0.90	0.34	+0.57	[+0.53, +0.62]
2010 Uruguay	Semi-final	0.90	0.36	+0.55	[+0.50, +0.59]
2002 United States	Quarter-final	0.77	0.26	+0.51	[+0.46, +0.57]
2006 Ghana	Round of 16	0.52	0.02	+0.49	[+0.48, +0.51]
2002 Germany	Final	0.97	0.48	+0.49	[+0.44, +0.53]
2022 Croatia	Semi-final	0.90	0.43	+0.47	[+0.43, +0.52]
2002 Brazil	Champion	1.00	0.53	+0.47	[+0.42, +0.51]
2006 Italy	Champion	1.00	0.55	+0.45	[+0.41, +0.50]

Under-performers

Biggest under-performer · 2002–2026

France 2002 · -0.81

The reigning champions, expected to outlast 81% of the field; reached only the Group and outlasted 0% — the biggest gap in 25 years.

CSV ↓

Team	Reached	Exp	Over/under	95% CI
2002 France def. champion	Group	0.81	-0.81	[-0.84, -0.78]
2018 Germany def. champion	Group	0.76	-0.76	[-0.80, -0.72]
2014 Spain def. champion	Group	0.72	-0.72	[-0.76, -0.68]
2002 Argentina	Group	0.68	-0.68	[-0.73, -0.63]
2002 Portugal	Group	0.66	-0.66	[-0.70, -0.62]
2010 Italy def. champion	Group	0.65	-0.65	[-0.68, -0.62]
2006 Czech Republic	Group	0.62	-0.62	[-0.66, -0.57]
2022 Belgium	Group	0.59	-0.59	[-0.63, -0.55]
2022 Denmark	Group	0.57	-0.57	[-0.61, -0.53]
2022 Uruguay	Group	0.57	-0.57	[-0.61, -0.53]
2022 Germany	Group	0.53	-0.53	[-0.57, -0.49]
2014 Russia	Group	0.49	-0.49	[-0.53, -0.45]

Headline

Four of the six biggest under-performers are reigning champions — France 2002, Germany 2018, Spain 2014 and Italy 2010.