WC Squad QualityHome2026 BracketShocksOver / UnderCompareMethodData

Over- and under-performance vs Elo

Expected finish is 10,000 Monte-Carlo simulations from each team's dated pre-tournament Elo, through the real group draw, with host home-advantage (+100). over_under = actual − expected outlast_pct, 95% bootstrap CI shown. Elo-baseline model — a squad-augmented v2 follows the final.

Over-performers

Biggest over-performer · 2002–2026
Morocco 2022 · +0.78
Reached the Semi-final — the Elo baseline expected them to outlast just 12% of the field; they outlasted 90%.
TeamReachedOutlastExpOver/under95% CI
2022 Morocco Semi-final0.90 0.12 +0.78[+0.75, +0.82]
2014 Costa Rica Quarter-final0.77 0.06 +0.71[+0.69, +0.73]
2002 Senegal Quarter-final0.77 0.07 +0.70[+0.68, +0.73]
2010 Ghana Quarter-final0.77 0.09 +0.69[+0.66, +0.71]
2002 Turkey Semi-final0.90 0.29 +0.61[+0.56, +0.66]
2018 Sweden Quarter-final0.77 0.20 +0.57[+0.53, +0.61]
2018 Croatia Final0.97 0.40 +0.57[+0.53, +0.62]
2002 South Korea Semi-final0.90 0.34 +0.57[+0.53, +0.62]
2010 Uruguay Semi-final0.90 0.36 +0.55[+0.50, +0.59]
2002 United States Quarter-final0.77 0.26 +0.51[+0.46, +0.57]
2006 Ghana Round of 160.52 0.02 +0.49[+0.48, +0.51]
2002 Germany Final0.97 0.48 +0.49[+0.44, +0.53]
2022 Croatia Semi-final0.90 0.43 +0.47[+0.43, +0.52]
2002 Brazil Champion1.00 0.53 +0.47[+0.42, +0.51]
2006 Italy Champion1.00 0.55 +0.45[+0.41, +0.50]

Under-performers

Biggest under-performer · 2002–2026
France 2002 · -0.81
The reigning champions, expected to outlast 81% of the field; reached only the Group and outlasted 0% — the biggest gap in 25 years.
TeamReachedOutlastExpOver/under95% CI
2002 France def. champion Group0.00 0.81 -0.81[-0.84, -0.78]
2018 Germany def. champion Group0.00 0.76 -0.76[-0.80, -0.72]
2014 Spain def. champion Group0.00 0.72 -0.72[-0.76, -0.68]
2002 Argentina Group0.00 0.68 -0.68[-0.73, -0.63]
2002 Portugal Group0.00 0.66 -0.66[-0.70, -0.62]
2010 Italy def. champion Group0.00 0.65 -0.65[-0.68, -0.62]
2006 Czech Republic Group0.00 0.62 -0.62[-0.66, -0.57]
2022 Belgium Group0.00 0.59 -0.59[-0.63, -0.55]
2022 Denmark Group0.00 0.57 -0.57[-0.61, -0.53]
2022 Uruguay Group0.00 0.57 -0.57[-0.61, -0.53]
2022 Germany Group0.00 0.53 -0.53[-0.57, -0.49]
2014 Russia Group0.00 0.49 -0.49[-0.53, -0.45]
Headline

Four of the six biggest under-performers are reigning champions — France 2002, Germany 2018, Spain 2014 and Italy 2010.