How close the eventual winners came to falling, and who had to beat the most. The darkest-hour timelines re-run the Elo Monte-Carlo conditioned on results-to-date at each checkpoint; a build gate confirms every champion's final checkpoint is 100%. Elo-only, provisional model.
Two eventual champions actually lost a group game and still won the World Cup. The lowest either sank: Spain 2010 to 19.9% after losing 0-1 L to 🇨🇭 Switzerland.
| Champion | Lowest P(title) | Moment | P(title) timeline |
|---|---|---|---|
| 🇧🇷 Brazil 2002 | 2.0% | after Group vs 🇹🇷 Turkey (2-1 W) | |
| 🇮🇹 Italy 2006 | 5.1% | after Group vs 🇺🇸 United States (1-1 D) | |
| 🇪🇸 Spain 2010 | 19.9% | after Group vs 🇨🇭 Switzerland (0-1 L) | |
| 🇩🇪 Germany 2014 | 13.9% | after Round of 16 vs 🇩🇿 Algeria (2-1 W) | |
| 🇫🇷 France 2018 | 4.4% | after Group vs 🇩🇰 Denmark (0-0 D) | |
| 🇦🇷 Argentina 2022 | 21.6% | after Group vs 🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia (1-2 L) |
| # | Champion | Mean opp Elo | Cumulative | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🇩🇪 Germany 2014 | 1883 | 13,181 | 7 |
| 2 | 🇫🇷 France 2018 | 1882 | 13,177 | 7 |
| 3 | 🇪🇸 Spain 2010 | 1857 | 13,002 | 7 |
| 4 | 🇦🇷 Argentina 2022 | 1850 | 12,947 | 7 |
| 5 | 🇮🇹 Italy 2006 | 1838 | 12,865 | 7 |
| 6 | 🇧🇷 Brazil 2002 | 1800 | 12,598 | 7 |
Top 10 by mean Elo; the min-Elo column is the strength of each group's weakest member — a group hard all the way down.
| # | Year | Group | Mean Elo | Min Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2014 | 🇦🇺 Australia, 🇨🇱 Chile, 🇳🇱 Netherlands, 🇪🇸 Spain | 1930 | 1708 |
| 2 | 2014 | 🇩🇪 Germany, 🇬🇭 Ghana, 🇵🇹 Portugal, 🇺🇸 United States | 1894 | 1704 |
| 3 | 2022 | 🇧🇷 Brazil, 🇨🇲 Cameroon, 🇷🇸 Serbia, 🇨🇭 Switzerland | 1894 | 1607 |
| 4 | 2002 | 🇦🇷 Argentina, 🏴 England, 🇳🇬 Nigeria, 🇸🇪 Sweden | 1894 | 1764 |
| 5 | 2018 | 🇧🇷 Brazil, 🇨🇷 Costa Rica, 🇷🇸 Serbia, 🇨🇭 Switzerland | 1890 | 1742 |
| 6 | 2022 | 🇨🇷 Costa Rica, 🇩🇪 Germany, 🇯🇵 Japan, 🇪🇸 Spain | 1886 | 1743 |
| 7 | 2018 | 🇮🇷 Iran, 🇲🇦 Morocco, 🇵🇹 Portugal, 🇪🇸 Spain | 1883 | 1731 |
| 8 | 2018 | 🇦🇺 Australia, 🇩🇰 Denmark, 🇫🇷 France, 🇵🇪 Peru | 1874 | 1743 |
| 9 | 2006 | 🇦🇷 Argentina, 🇨🇮 Ivory Coast, 🇳🇱 Netherlands, Serbia and Montenegro | 1870 | 1766 |
| 10 | 2010 | 🇨🇱 Chile, 🇭🇳 Honduras, 🇪🇸 Spain, 🇨🇭 Switzerland | 1868 | 1714 |