WC Squad QualityHome2026 BracketShocksOver / UnderCompareMethodData

All-time shocks, 2002–2026

Every World Cup result scored by a pure Elo→Poisson model. upset_index = −log₂ P(observed) — higher means the model was more stunned. Lineup-blind (see caveat).

Biggest shock · 2002–2026
Saudi Arabia 2–1 Argentina
2022 group stage · upset index 7.72 · the model gave the result a 0.5% chance — and Argentina went on to lift the trophy.
2 Ghana 2–0 Czech Republic 2006 · Group · model P 2.6% 5.24
3 Senegal 1–0 France 2002 · Group · model P 2.8% 5.18
4 South Korea 2–0 Germany 2018 · Group · model P 3.6% 4.78
5 Tunisia 1–0 France 2022 · Group · model P 4.1% 4.59
6 Switzerland 1–0 Spain 2010 · Group · model P 4.3% 4.54
7 South Korea 2–1 Portugal 2022 · Group · model P 6.8% 3.87
8 Slovakia 3–2 Italy 2010 · Group · model P 8.1% 3.62
9 Cape Verde 0–0 Spain 2026 · Group · model P 8.2% 3.61
10 Japan 2–1 Spain 2022 · Group · model P 8.5% 3.56
11 England 0–0 Ghana 2026 · Group · model P 9.5% 3.39
12 South Africa 1–0 South Korea 2026 · Group · model P 9.8% 3.35
13 Japan 2–1 Colombia 2018 · Group · model P 9.8% 3.35
14 Ivory Coast 1–0 Ecuador 2026 · Group · model P 9.8% 3.35
15 South Africa 2–1 France 2010 · Group · model P 9.9% 3.33
16 Morocco 2–0 Belgium 2022 · Group · model P 9.9% 3.33
17 Ghana 3–2 South Korea 2022 · Group · model P 10.2% 3.29
18 Qatar 1–1 Switzerland 2026 · Group · model P 10.4% 3.26
19 Algeria 0–0 England 2010 · Group · model P 10.7% 3.23
20 Curaçao 0–0 Ecuador 2026 · Group · model P 10.7% 3.23
21 Mexico 1–0 Germany 2018 · Group · model P 11.0% 3.19
22 Ghana 1–0 Panama 2026 · Group · model P 11.5% 3.12
23 Germany 2–2 Ghana 2014 · Group · model P 12.1% 3.05
24 Costa Rica 3–1 Uruguay 2014 · Group · model P 12.5% 3.00
25 Ecuador 1–0 Croatia 2002 · Group · model P 13.3% 2.90
── model floor: win-expectancy below 4.1% is beyond resolution, index shown ≥4.61, ranked by Elo gap ──
Cameroon 1–0 Brazil ≥4.61
2022 · Group · Elo gap 577 · P < 4.1% — beyond model resolution
Caveat

The model knows only ratings — not team-sheets. Cameroon 1–0 Brazil (2022) was a dead rubber with a heavily rotated Brazil XI, which is why it sits beyond resolution rather than atop the list. Rotation adjustments are deferred (LATER).