The Cliff

All-time shocks, 2002–2026

Every World Cup result scored by a pure Elo→Poisson model. upset_index = −log₂ P(observed) — higher means the model was more stunned. Lineup-blind (see caveat). Full sortable list of all matches: every result, ranked → · does the 48-team format mean more chaos? →

Biggest shock · 2002–2026
🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia 2–1 🇦🇷 Argentina
2022 group stage · upset index 7.72 · the model gave the result a 0.5% chance — and Argentina went on to lift the trophy anyway.
2🇬🇭 Ghana 2–0 🇨🇿 Czech Republic 2006 · Group · model P 2.6%5.24
3🇸🇳 Senegal 1–0 🇫🇷 France 2002 · Group · model P 2.8%5.18
4🇰🇷 South Korea 2–0 🇩🇪 Germany 2018 · Group · model P 3.6%4.78
5🇹🇳 Tunisia 1–0 🇫🇷 France 2022 · Group · model P 4.1%4.59
6🇨🇭 Switzerland 1–0 🇪🇸 Spain 2010 · Group · model P 4.3%4.54
7🇰🇷 South Korea 2–1 🇵🇹 Portugal 2022 · Group · model P 6.8%3.87
8🇸🇰 Slovakia 3–2 🇮🇹 Italy 2010 · Group · model P 8.1%3.62
9🇨🇻 Cape Verde 0–0 🇪🇸 Spain 2026 · Group · model P 8.2%3.61
10🇯🇵 Japan 2–1 🇪🇸 Spain 2022 · Group · model P 8.5%3.56
11🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 England 0–0 🇬🇭 Ghana 2026 · Group · model P 9.5%3.39
12🇿🇦 South Africa 1–0 🇰🇷 South Korea 2026 · Group · model P 9.8%3.35
13🇯🇵 Japan 2–1 🇨🇴 Colombia 2018 · Group · model P 9.8%3.35
14🇨🇮 Ivory Coast 1–0 🇪🇨 Ecuador 2026 · Group · model P 9.8%3.35
15🇿🇦 South Africa 2–1 🇫🇷 France 2010 · Group · model P 9.9%3.33
16🇲🇦 Morocco 2–0 🇧🇪 Belgium 2022 · Group · model P 9.9%3.33
17🇬🇭 Ghana 3–2 🇰🇷 South Korea 2022 · Group · model P 10.2%3.29
18🇶🇦 Qatar 1–1 🇨🇭 Switzerland 2026 · Group · model P 10.4%3.26
19🇩🇿 Algeria 0–0 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 England 2010 · Group · model P 10.7%3.23
20🇨🇼 Curaçao 0–0 🇪🇨 Ecuador 2026 · Group · model P 10.7%3.23
21🇲🇽 Mexico 1–0 🇩🇪 Germany 2018 · Group · model P 11.0%3.19
22🇬🇭 Ghana 1–0 🇵🇦 Panama 2026 · Group · model P 11.5%3.12
23🇩🇪 Germany 2–2 🇬🇭 Ghana 2014 · Group · model P 12.1%3.05
24🇨🇷 Costa Rica 3–1 🇺🇾 Uruguay 2014 · Group · model P 12.5%3.00
25🇪🇨 Ecuador 1–0 🇭🇷 Croatia 2002 · Group · model P 13.3%2.90

Biggest shock by tournament

CSV ↓
YearResultModel PUpset
2002🇸🇳 Senegal 1–0 🇫🇷 France2.8%5.18
2006🇬🇭 Ghana 2–0 🇨🇿 Czech Republic2.6%5.24
2010🇨🇭 Switzerland 1–0 🇪🇸 Spain4.3%4.54
2014🇩🇪 Germany 2–2 🇬🇭 Ghana12.1%3.05
2018🇰🇷 South Korea 2–0 🇩🇪 Germany3.6%4.78
2022🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia 2–1 🇦🇷 Argentina0.5%7.72
2026🇨🇻 Cape Verde 0–0 🇪🇸 Spain8.2%3.61

Shock ledger — dealt & received

Only matches the lower-Elo side won or drew count. The upset index credits the underdog as dealt and the favourite as received; favourite blowouts are a different phenomenon and are excluded (see method).

The intuition says Germany — but the ledger says Spain: 33.4 cumulative upset received. Germany, for all its famous collapses, ranks only #7 (22.4).

Most shocked side of the century
1
🇪🇸 Spain
cumulative upset index received
33.4
  1. 2🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 England30.7
  2. 3🇫🇷 France30.0
  3. 4🇧🇷 Brazil26.7
full table →

Top dealers

most shock inflicted

CSV ↓
#NationΣ index
1🇬🇭 Ghana28.9
2🇯🇵 Japan24.6
3🇰🇷 South Korea24.6
4🇺🇸 United States18.6
5🇲🇦 Morocco16.9
6🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia16.1
7🇸🇳 Senegal16.0
8🇿🇦 South Africa15.3
9🇨🇷 Costa Rica14.3
10🇦🇺 Australia12.9

Top victims

most shock suffered

CSV ↓
#NationΣ index
1🇪🇸 Spain33.4
2🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 England30.7
3🇫🇷 France30.0
4🇧🇷 Brazil26.7
5🇵🇹 Portugal26.0
6🇦🇷 Argentina23.4
7🇩🇪 Germany22.4
8🇮🇹 Italy22.4
9🇭🇷 Croatia14.9
10🇺🇸 United States14.3

Biggest net dealers

dealt − received

CSV ↓
#NationΣ index
1🇬🇭 Ghana+28.9
2🇲🇦 Morocco+16.9
3🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia+16.1
4🇿🇦 South Africa+15.3
5🇯🇵 Japan+14.8
6🇸🇳 Senegal+14.1
7🇰🇷 South Korea+14.1
8🇨🇷 Costa Rica+10.4
9🇳🇿 New Zealand+9.5
10🇩🇿 Algeria+9.1
── model floor: win-expectancy below 4.1% is beyond resolution, index shown ≥4.61, ranked by Elo gap ──
🇨🇲 Cameroon 1–0 🇧🇷 Brazil ≥4.61
2022 · Group · Elo gap 577 · P < 4.1% — beyond model resolution
Caveat

The model knows only ratings — not team-sheets. Cameroon 1–0 Brazil (2022) was a dead rubber with a heavily rotated Brazil XI, which is why it sits beyond resolution rather than atop the list. Rotation adjustments are deferred (LATER).