2026 Bracket — model vs actual

🔒 final lock 2026-07-16 09:05 UTC · sha ee6ecca9 · snapshot · semi lock 2026-07-13 · sha f8c3b05d · all locks · prediction ledger → · locked pages are byte-frozen and deliberately keep the old look

Every 2026 match, scored (103)

Elo favourite won 67/79 decisive matches · 24 drawn in 90.

CSV ↓

Stage	Result	Model P	Upset	Call
Group	South Korea 2–1 Czech Republic	39%	1.35	✓
Group	Mexico 2–0 South Africa	81%	0.30	✓
Group	United States 4–1 Paraguay	22%	2.17	✗
Group	Canada 1–1 Bosnia and Herzegovina	22%	2.17	–
Group	Scotland 1–0 Haiti	69%	0.53	✓
Group	Qatar 1–1 Switzerland	10%	3.26	–
Group	Brazil 1–1 Morocco	23%	2.10	–
Group	Australia 2–0 Turkey	19%	2.37	✗
Group	Sweden 5–1 Tunisia	49%	1.03	✓
Group	Japan 2–2 Netherlands	27%	1.90	–
Group	Ivory Coast 1–0 Ecuador	10%	3.35	✗
Group	Germany 7–1 Curaçao	90%	0.15	✓
Group	Saudi Arabia 1–1 Uruguay	17%	2.60	–
Group	Iran 2–2 New Zealand	21%	2.22	–
Group	Cape Verde 0–0 Spain	8%	3.61	–
Group	Belgium 1–1 Egypt	22%	2.19	–
Group	Norway 4–1 Iraq	77%	0.38	✓
Group	France 3–1 Senegal	65%	0.61	✓
Group	Austria 3–1 Jordan	58%	0.78	✓
Group	Argentina 3–0 Algeria	80%	0.32	✓
Group	Ghana 1–0 Panama	12%	3.12	✗
Group	England 4–2 Croatia	53%	0.91	✓
Group	DR Congo 1–1 Portugal	16%	2.68	–
Group	Colombia 3–1 Uzbekistan	73%	0.45	✓
Group	Switzerland 4–1 Bosnia and Herzegovina	71%	0.50	✓
Group	Mexico 1–0 South Korea	50%	0.99	✓
Group	Czech Republic 1–1 South Africa	22%	2.20	–
Group	Canada 6–0 Qatar	78%	0.36	✓
Group	United States 2–0 Australia	28%	1.82	✗
Group	Paraguay 1–0 Turkey	27%	1.89	✗
Group	Morocco 1–0 Scotland	43%	1.21	✓
Group	Brazil 3–0 Haiti	87%	0.20	✓
Group	Netherlands 5–1 Sweden	64%	0.65	✓
Group	Japan 4–0 Tunisia	79%	0.35	✓
Group	Germany 2–1 Ivory Coast	65%	0.63	✓
Group	Curaçao 0–0 Ecuador	11%	3.23	–
Group	Spain 4–0 Saudi Arabia	91%	0.13	✓
Group	Egypt 3–1 New Zealand	56%	0.84	✓
Group	Cape Verde 2–2 Uruguay	19%	2.40	–
Group	Belgium 0–0 Iran	25%	2.01	–
Group	Norway 3–2 Senegal	50%	1.01	✓
Group	France 3–0 Iraq	90%	0.16	✓
Group	Argentina 2–0 Austria	73%	0.45	✓
Group	Algeria 2–1 Jordan	52%	0.94	✓
Group	Portugal 5–0 Uzbekistan	73%	0.45	✓
Group	England 0–0 Ghana	10%	3.39	–
Group	Croatia 1–0 Panama	65%	0.63	✓
Group	Colombia 1–0 DR Congo	79%	0.35	✓
Group	South Africa 1–0 South Korea	10%	3.35	✗
Group	Morocco 4–2 Haiti	80%	0.33	✓
Group	Mexico 3–0 Czech Republic	65%	0.62	✓
Group	Canada 1–2 Switzerland	52%	0.93	✓
Group	Brazil 3–0 Scotland	67%	0.57	✓
Group	Bosnia and Herzegovina 3–1 Qatar	60%	0.75	✓
Group	United States 2–3 Turkey	35%	1.49	✗
Group	Netherlands 3–1 Tunisia	85%	0.24	✓
Group	Japan 1–1 Sweden	22%	2.19	–
Group	Ivory Coast 2–0 Curaçao	74%	0.44	✓
Group	Ecuador 2–1 Germany	24%	2.03	✗
Group	Australia 0–0 Paraguay	27%	1.89	–
Group	Spain 1–0 Uruguay	75%	0.42	✓
Group	Senegal 5–0 Iraq	69%	0.54	✓
Group	France 4–1 Norway	57%	0.81	✓
Group	Egypt 1–1 Iran	27%	1.89	–
Group	Cape Verde 0–0 Saudi Arabia	27%	1.90	–
Group	Belgium 5–1 New Zealand	78%	0.36	✓
Group	England 2–0 Panama	82%	0.29	✓
Group	DR Congo 3–1 Uzbekistan	35%	1.52	✗
Group	Croatia 2–1 Ghana	77%	0.37	✓
Group	Colombia 0–0 Portugal	27%	1.89	–
Group	Argentina 3–1 Jordan	90%	0.14	✓
Group	Algeria 3–3 Austria	26%	1.92	–
Round of 32	Canada 1–0 South Africa	62%	0.70	✓
Round of 32	Morocco 1–1 Netherlands	25%	1.97	–
Round of 32	Germany 1–1 Paraguay	26%	1.97	–
Round of 32	Brazil 2–1 Japan	51%	0.97	✓
Round of 32	Norway 2–1 Ivory Coast	62%	0.69	✓
Round of 32	Mexico 2–0 Ecuador	38%	1.40	✓
Round of 32	France 3–0 Sweden	83%	0.27	✓
Round of 32	United States 2–0 Bosnia and Herzegovina	60%	0.75	✓
Round of 32	England 2–1 DR Congo	79%	0.35	✓
Round of 32	Belgium 3–2 Senegal	43%	1.23	✓
Round of 32	Switzerland 2–0 Algeria	55%	0.85	✓
Round of 32	Spain 3–0 Austria	77%	0.38	✓
Round of 32	Portugal 2–1 Croatia	49%	1.03	✓
Round of 32	Colombia 1–0 Ghana	86%	0.21	✓
Round of 32	Australia 1–1 Egypt	27%	1.92	–
Round of 32	Argentina 3–2 Cape Verde	91%	0.14	✓
Round of 16	Morocco 3–0 Canada	54%	0.88	✓
Round of 16	France 1–0 Paraguay	77%	0.37	✓
Round of 16	Norway 2–1 Brazil	24%	2.08	✗
Round of 16	Mexico 2–3 England	52%	0.95	✓
Round of 16	United States 1–4 Belgium	53%	0.92	✓
Round of 16	Spain 1–0 Portugal	58%	0.79	✓
Round of 16	Colombia 0–0 Switzerland	26%	1.92	–
Round of 16	Argentina 3–2 Egypt	85%	0.24	✓
Quarter-final	France 2–0 Morocco	68%	0.56	✓
Quarter-final	Spain 2–1 Belgium	67%	0.58	✓
Quarter-final	England 2–1 Norway	52%	0.95	✓
Quarter-final	Argentina 3–1 Switzerland	66%	0.60	✓
Semi-final	Spain 2–0 France	40%	1.31	✓
Semi-final	Argentina 2–1 England	48%	1.05	✓
Third place	England 6–4 France	30%	1.74	✗

Prediction ledger & hashes →

2026 — road to the final

Round of 16

Round of 32

Title odds — model vs market

Every 2026 match, scored (103)