2026 bracket — model vs actual

Played matches score the observed result against the retrospective model (P of what happened, and its upset index). Remaining matches show the locked pre-kickoff forecast.

🔒 Locked pre-kickoff · 13 Jul 18:38 ET · these numbers do not move

France vs Spain

France 46.1%Spain 53.9%

Likeliest scores: 1–1 12.8% · 0–1 10.9% · 1–0 9.6%

England vs Argentina

England 38.7%Argentina 61.3%

Likeliest scores: 1–1 12.4% · 0–1 12.2% · 1–2 9.2%

Title odds — model vs market

Argentina 30.6%

Spain 30.3% · Opta 23.5%

France 24.2% · Opta 34.1%

England 14.9%

Full locked forecast: bracket artifact →

Played (100 matches)

Stage	Result	Model P	Upset
Group	South Korea 2–1 Czech Republic	39%	1.35
Group	Mexico 2–0 South Africa	81%	0.30
Group	United States 4–1 Paraguay	22%	2.17
Group	Canada 1–1 Bosnia and Herzegovina	22%	2.17
Group	Scotland 1–0 Haiti	69%	0.53
Group	Qatar 1–1 Switzerland	10%	3.26
Group	Brazil 1–1 Morocco	23%	2.10
Group	Australia 2–0 Turkey	19%	2.37
Group	Sweden 5–1 Tunisia	49%	1.03
Group	Japan 2–2 Netherlands	27%	1.90
Group	Ivory Coast 1–0 Ecuador	10%	3.35
Group	Germany 7–1 Curaçao	90%	0.15
Group	Saudi Arabia 1–1 Uruguay	17%	2.60
Group	Iran 2–2 New Zealand	21%	2.22
Group	Cape Verde 0–0 Spain	8%	3.61
Group	Belgium 1–1 Egypt	22%	2.19
Group	Norway 4–1 Iraq	77%	0.38
Group	France 3–1 Senegal	65%	0.61
Group	Austria 3–1 Jordan	58%	0.78
Group	Argentina 3–0 Algeria	80%	0.32
Group	Ghana 1–0 Panama	12%	3.12
Group	England 4–2 Croatia	53%	0.91
Group	DR Congo 1–1 Portugal	16%	2.68
Group	Colombia 3–1 Uzbekistan	73%	0.45
Group	Switzerland 4–1 Bosnia and Herzegovina	71%	0.50
Group	Mexico 1–0 South Korea	50%	0.99
Group	Czech Republic 1–1 South Africa	22%	2.20
Group	Canada 6–0 Qatar	78%	0.36
Group	United States 2–0 Australia	28%	1.82
Group	Paraguay 1–0 Turkey	27%	1.89
Group	Morocco 1–0 Scotland	43%	1.21
Group	Brazil 3–0 Haiti	87%	0.20
Group	Netherlands 5–1 Sweden	64%	0.65
Group	Japan 4–0 Tunisia	79%	0.35
Group	Germany 2–1 Ivory Coast	65%	0.63
Group	Curaçao 0–0 Ecuador	11%	3.23
Group	Spain 4–0 Saudi Arabia	91%	0.13
Group	Egypt 3–1 New Zealand	56%	0.84
Group	Cape Verde 2–2 Uruguay	19%	2.40
Group	Belgium 0–0 Iran	25%	2.01
Group	Norway 3–2 Senegal	50%	1.01
Group	France 3–0 Iraq	90%	0.16
Group	Argentina 2–0 Austria	73%	0.45
Group	Algeria 2–1 Jordan	52%	0.94
Group	Portugal 5–0 Uzbekistan	73%	0.45
Group	England 0–0 Ghana	10%	3.39
Group	Croatia 1–0 Panama	65%	0.63
Group	Colombia 1–0 DR Congo	79%	0.35
Group	South Africa 1–0 South Korea	10%	3.35
Group	Morocco 4–2 Haiti	80%	0.33
Group	Mexico 3–0 Czech Republic	65%	0.62
Group	Canada 1–2 Switzerland	52%	0.93
Group	Brazil 3–0 Scotland	67%	0.57
Group	Bosnia and Herzegovina 3–1 Qatar	60%	0.75
Group	United States 2–3 Turkey	35%	1.49
Group	Netherlands 3–1 Tunisia	85%	0.24
Group	Japan 1–1 Sweden	22%	2.19
Group	Ivory Coast 2–0 Curaçao	74%	0.44
Group	Ecuador 2–1 Germany	24%	2.03
Group	Australia 0–0 Paraguay	27%	1.89
Group	Spain 1–0 Uruguay	75%	0.42
Group	Senegal 5–0 Iraq	69%	0.54
Group	France 4–1 Norway	57%	0.81
Group	Egypt 1–1 Iran	27%	1.89
Group	Cape Verde 0–0 Saudi Arabia	27%	1.90
Group	Belgium 5–1 New Zealand	78%	0.36
Group	England 2–0 Panama	82%	0.29
Group	DR Congo 3–1 Uzbekistan	35%	1.52
Group	Croatia 2–1 Ghana	77%	0.37
Group	Colombia 0–0 Portugal	27%	1.89
Group	Argentina 3–1 Jordan	90%	0.14
Group	Algeria 3–3 Austria	26%	1.92
Round of 32	Canada 1–0 South Africa	62%	0.70
Round of 32	Morocco 1–1 Netherlands	25%	1.97
Round of 32	Germany 1–1 Paraguay	26%	1.97
Round of 32	Brazil 2–1 Japan	51%	0.97
Round of 32	Norway 2–1 Ivory Coast	62%	0.69
Round of 32	Mexico 2–0 Ecuador	38%	1.40
Round of 32	France 3–0 Sweden	83%	0.27
Round of 32	United States 2–0 Bosnia and Herzegovina	60%	0.75
Round of 32	England 2–1 DR Congo	79%	0.35
Round of 32	Belgium 3–2 Senegal	43%	1.23
Round of 32	Switzerland 2–0 Algeria	55%	0.85
Round of 32	Spain 3–0 Austria	77%	0.38
Round of 32	Portugal 2–1 Croatia	49%	1.02
Round of 32	Colombia 1–0 Ghana	86%	0.21
Round of 32	Australia 1–1 Egypt	27%	1.92
Round of 32	Argentina 3–2 Cape Verde	91%	0.14
Round of 16	Morocco 3–0 Canada	54%	0.88
Round of 16	France 1–0 Paraguay	77%	0.37
Round of 16	Norway 2–1 Brazil	24%	2.08
Round of 16	Mexico 2–3 England	52%	0.95
Round of 16	United States 1–4 Belgium	53%	0.92
Round of 16	Spain 1–0 Portugal	58%	0.79
Round of 16	Colombia 0–0 Switzerland	26%	1.92
Round of 16	Argentina 3–2 Egypt	85%	0.24
Quarter-final	France 2–0 Morocco	68%	0.56
Quarter-final	Spain 2–1 Belgium	67%	0.58
Quarter-final	England 2–1 Norway	52%	0.95
Quarter-final	Argentina 3–1 Switzerland	66%	0.60

Prediction ledger & hashes →