🇳🇱 Netherlands 1–0 Serbia and Montenegro

2006 World Cup · Group. Result scored against the Elo→Poisson model. tournament · tables

value €207M · value #8 · Elo #2

1–0Netherlands win

value €98M · value #13 · Elo #18

Model P(result)

64.4%

model probability of the observed score

Upset index

0.64

−log₂ P(observed)

Elo gap

195

1994 vs 1799

Stage

Group

2006 World Cup