🇵🇹 Portugal 1–0 Netherlands 🇳🇱

2006 World Cup · Round of 16. Result scored against the Elo→Poisson model. tournament · tables

value €234M · value #6 · Elo #9

1–0Portugal win

value €207M · value #8 · Elo #2

Model P(result)

30.5%

model probability of the observed score

Upset index

1.71

−log₂ P(observed)

Elo gap

1973 vs 2016

Stage

Round of 16

2006 World Cup