The cost of holding on

Every case where a nation brought back the same generation — the modal four-year birth window of the squad was the identical actual window one World Cup later — instead of refreshing it. Ranked by the collapse in over/under from t to t+4. Cache-only, freeze-respecting.

The type specimen: Australia held its golden generation (born 1978–1981) from 2006 to 2010 rather than refresh it — mean age rose +0.5, and a squad that over-performed by +0.31 in 2006 under-performed by -0.22 in 2010.

NationCycleWindow ΔageΔapps/pl OU tOU t+4Δ
🇩🇪 Germany2014→20181987–1990+0.9+26+0.26-0.76-1.02
🇪🇸 Spain2010→20141985–1988+2.0+68+0.14-0.72-0.86
🇦🇺 Australia2006→20101978–1981+0.5+4+0.31-0.22-0.53
🇺🇾 Uruguay2010→20141984–1987+1.5+57+0.55+0.09-0.45
🇧🇷 Brazil2002→20061973–1976+2.0+65+0.47+0.03-0.44
🇦🇷 Argentina2014→20181985–1988+0.7-0+0.29-0.14-0.43
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 England2006→20101978–1981+3.1+80+0.13-0.26-0.39
🇲🇦 Morocco2022→20261996–1999+0.3+12+0.78+0.41-0.38
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 England2002→20061978–1981-1.4+11+0.34+0.13-0.21
🇮🇷 Iran2022→20261992–1995+1.5+2-0.24-0.41-0.16
🇷🇸 Serbia2018→20221994–1997+0.1+32-0.16-0.32-0.16
🇦🇷 Argentina2006→20101978–1981+1.0-2+0.29+0.16-0.13
🇧🇷 Brazil2014→20181985–1988+0.2+18-0.02-0.07-0.05
🇨🇮 Ivory Coast2006→20101980–1983+1.2+22-0.13-0.15-0.03
🇲🇽 Mexico2014→20181988–1991+2.0+33+0.21+0.19-0.02
🇨🇭 Switzerland2014→20181989–1992+1.2+21+0.11+0.13+0.02
🇺🇾 Uruguay2014→20181984–1987-0.5-3+0.09+0.14+0.04
🇧🇷 Brazil2022→20261991–1994+1.4+20-0.07+0.02+0.08
🇨🇭 Switzerland2022→20261995–1998+1.3+27+0.19+0.28+0.09
🇨🇲 Cameroon2010→20141983–1986+1.0+23-0.16-0.04+0.12
🇨🇷 Costa Rica2002→20061974–1977+0.3+6-0.29-0.15+0.14
🇶🇦 Qatar2022→20261990–1993+2.5+2-0.21-0.04+0.17
🇩🇪 Germany2022→20261993–1996+1.2+13-0.53-0.27+0.26
🇬🇭 Ghana2022→20261997–2000+2.2+2-0.01+0.31+0.32
🇲🇽 Mexico2022→20261995–1998-0.7-12-0.27+0.14+0.41
🇭🇷 Croatia2014→20181986–1989+0.5+52-0.31+0.57+0.88

Window conversion (DESIGN v3 wasted-generations leaderboard) is a distinct peak-quality-vs-peak-result analysis — deferred to its own item, not folded in here.