🇳🇱 Netherlands 1–0 Japan 🇯🇵

2010 World Cup · Group. Result scored against the Elo→Poisson model. tournament · tables

value €256M · value #9 · Elo #3

1–0Netherlands win

value €73M · value #21 · Elo #27

Model P(result)

80.7%

model probability of the observed score

Upset index

0.31

−log₂ P(observed)

Elo gap

350

2059 vs 1709

Stage

Group

2010 World Cup