🇯🇵 Japan 2–2 Netherlands 🇳🇱 2026 · live

2026 World Cup · Group. Result scored against the Elo→Poisson model. tournament · tables

value €271M · value #22 · Elo #14

2–2draw

value €754M · value #8 · Elo #8

Model P(result)

26.7%

model probability of the observed score

Upset index

1.90

−log₂ P(observed)

Elo gap

1906 vs 1948

Stage

Group

2026 World Cup