🇮🇹 Italy 1–1 Mexico 🇲🇽

2002 World Cup · Group. Result scored against the Elo→Poisson model. tournament · tables

value €0M · value #13 · Elo #3

1–1draw

value €0M · value #15 · Elo #15

Model P(result)

25.7%

model probability of the observed score

Upset index

1.96

−log₂ P(observed)

Elo gap

1980 vs 1884

Stage

Group

2002 World Cup