🇮🇹 Italy 2–0 Ecuador 🇪🇨

2002 World Cup · Group. Result scored against the Elo→Poisson model. tournament · tables

value €0M · value #13 · Elo #3

2–0Italy win

value €0M · value #9 · Elo #27

Model P(result)

74.5%

model probability of the observed score

Upset index

0.42

−log₂ P(observed)

Elo gap

282

2009 vs 1727

Stage

Group

2002 World Cup