🇮🇹 Italy 1–1 New Zealand 🇳🇿

2010 World Cup · Group. Result scored against the Elo→Poisson model. tournament · tables

value €320M · value #6 · Elo #6

1–1draw

value €13M · value #31 · Elo #32

Model P(result)

13.6%

model probability of the observed score

Upset index

2.88

−log₂ P(observed)

Elo gap

383

1922 vs 1539

Stage

Group

2010 World Cup