🇸🇰 Slovakia 3–2 Italy 🇮🇹
2010 World Cup · Group. tournament · tables
🇸🇰 Slovakia value €80M · value #19 · Elo #28
Marek Hamšík €24M Martin Škrtel €14M Filip Hološko €6M 3–2 Slovakia win
🇮🇹 Italy value €320M · value #6 · Elo #6
Daniele De Rossi €38M Gianluigi Buffon €30M Giorgio Chiellini €23M Goals
Slovakia ▲ Italy ▼ 0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90' 105' 120' Róbert Vittek 25' 25 Vittek Róbert Vittek 73' 73 Vittek Kamil Kopúnek 89' 89 Kopúnek Antonio Di Natale 81' 81 Natale Fabio Quagliarella 90+2' 92 Quagliarella
Starting line-ups
List Pitch
🇸🇰 Slovakia
Ján Mucha · GK 1 Mucha Ján Ďurica · CB 16 Ďurica Peter Pekarík · RB 2 Pekarík Martin Škrtel · CB 3 Škrtel Radoslav Zabavník · LB 5 Zabavník Miroslav Stoch · LM 15 Stoch Marek Hamšík · RM 17 Hamšík Juraj Kucka · CM 19 Kucka Zdeno Štrba · CM 6 Štrba Róbert Vittek · SS 11 Vittek Erik Jendrišek · CF 18 Jendrišek 🇮🇹 Italy
Federico Marchetti · GK 12 Marchetti Gianluca Zambrotta · RB 19 Zambrotta Domenico Criscito · LB 3 Criscito Giorgio Chiellini · CB 4 Chiellini Fabio Cannavaro · CB 5 Cannavaro Riccardo Montolivo · CM 22 Montolivo Daniele De Rossi · DM 6 Rossi Gennaro Gattuso · CM 8 Gattuso Antonio Di Natale · LW 10 Natale Simone Pepe · RW 7 Pepe Vincenzo Iaquinta · CF 9 Iaquinta Players sit in vertical bands (GK · defence · midfield · attack) by their listed position — no
left/right placement is inferred. Order within a band is squad-sheet order, not a formation.
Pre-match model (Elo→Poisson, 90-min W/D/L)
🇸🇰 Slovakia 8.1% draw 18.7% 73.2% Italy 🇮🇹
Model P(result)
8.1%
P of the observed 90-min outcome
Upset rank
#8
of 487 · −log₂ P
Upset index
3.62
−log₂ P(observed)
Slovakia's run D 🇳🇿 1–1 New Zealand, Group L 🇵🇾 0–2 Paraguay, Group W 🇮🇹 3–2 Italy, Group L 🇳🇱 1–2 Netherlands, Round of 16 Italy's run D 🇵🇾 1–1 Paraguay, Group D 🇳🇿 1–1 New Zealand, Group L 🇸🇰 2–3 Slovakia, Group
Head-to-head at the World Cup No prior World Cup meetings.