🇮🇹 Italy 1–1 Paraguay 🇵🇾

2010 World Cup · Group. Result scored against the Elo→Poisson model. tournament · tables

value €320M · value #6 · Elo #6

1–1draw

value €71M · value #22 · Elo #18

Model P(result)

23.0%

model probability of the observed score

Upset index

2.12

−log₂ P(observed)

Elo gap

172

1936 vs 1764

Stage

Group

2010 World Cup