🇧🇦 Bosnia and Herzegovina 3–1 Iran 🇮🇷

2014 World Cup · Group. Result scored against the Elo→Poisson model. tournament · tables

value €115M · value #19 · Elo #21

3–1Bosnia and Herzegovina win

value €24M · value #30 · Elo #25

Model P(result)

41.0%

model probability of the observed score

Upset index

1.29

−log₂ P(observed)

Elo gap

1739 vs 1708

Stage

Group

2014 World Cup