🇷🇸 Serbia 1–0 Costa Rica 🇨🇷

2018 World Cup · Group. Result scored against the Elo→Poisson model. tournament · tables

value €280M · value #12 · Elo #19

1–0Serbia win

value €40M · value #29 · Elo #23

Model P(result)

43.2%

model probability of the observed score

Upset index

1.21

−log₂ P(observed)

Elo gap

1788 vs 1742

Stage

Group

2018 World Cup