The share of each squad whose Transfermarkt market value was rising over the 12 months before kick-off — a squad on the way up versus one coasting on reputation. 2002 is excluded (TM value history begins ~2004; 2006 is partial). Cache-only.
Squad value momentum and World Cup over-performance are uncorrelated (Spearman ρ = -0.01, n = 196). A squad of rising stars is no more likely to beat expectations than one of established names — momentum, at least the market's version, does not travel to the tournament.
France 2002 — the aging defending champions — cannot be measured: Transfermarkt value history begins ~2004, so 2002 squads have no 12-month window (known=0). The nearest measurable analog is Spain 2014: reigning champions with the lowest momentum of any elite squad (10/23 = 43% rising) — and a group-stage exit.
| Squad | Rising | % | OU |
|---|---|---|---|
| 🇪🇸 Spain 2018 | 19/23 | 83% | -0.19 |
| 🇫🇷 France 2018 | 19/23 | 83% | +0.41 |
| 🏴 England 2018 | 19/23 | 83% | +0.30 |
| 🇹🇳 Tunisia 2018 | 19/23 | 83% | -0.06 |
| 🇦🇷 Argentina 2010 | 18/23 | 78% | +0.16 |
| 🏴 England 2010 | 18/23 | 78% | -0.26 |
| 🇪🇸 Spain 2010 | 18/23 | 78% | +0.14 |
| 🇨🇭 Switzerland 2014 | 18/23 | 78% | +0.11 |
| 🇩🇪 Germany 2014 | 18/23 | 78% | +0.26 |
| 🇯🇵 Japan 2006 | 12/16 | 75% | -0.18 |
| 🇪🇬 Egypt 2018 | 17/23 | 74% | -0.14 |
| 🇦🇺 Australia 2018 | 17/23 | 74% | -0.09 |
| Squad | Rising | % | OU |
|---|---|---|---|
| 🇦🇷 Argentina 2026 | 6/26 | 23% | +0.14 |
| 🇳🇱 Netherlands 2006 | 7/23 | 30% | -0.13 |
| 🇵🇹 Portugal 2006 | 7/23 | 30% | +0.37 |
| 🇧🇷 Brazil 2026 | 8/26 | 31% | +0.02 |
| 🇪🇸 Spain 2026 | 8/26 | 31% | +0.09 |
| 🇵🇹 Portugal 2026 | 8/26 | 31% | +0.03 |
| 🇦🇷 Argentina 2022 | 9/26 | 35% | +0.17 |
| 🇳🇱 Netherlands 2026 | 9/26 | 35% | -0.27 |
| 🇪🇸 Spain 2022 | 10/26 | 38% | -0.20 |
| 🇦🇷 Argentina 2006 | 9/22 | 41% | +0.29 |
| 🇧🇷 Brazil 2022 | 11/26 | 42% | -0.07 |
| 🇩🇪 Germany 2026 | 11/26 | 42% | -0.27 |