🇦🇷 Argentina 2–1 Mexico 🇲🇽

2006 World Cup · Round of 16. Result scored against the Elo→Poisson model. tournament · tables

value €228M · value #7 · Elo #8

2–1Argentina win

value €45M · value #20 · Elo #13

Model P(result)

57.1%

model probability of the observed score

Upset index

0.81

−log₂ P(observed)

Elo gap

141

1980 vs 1839

Stage

Round of 16

2006 World Cup