🇵🇹 Portugal 2–1 Mexico 🇲🇽

2006 World Cup · Group. Result scored against the Elo→Poisson model. tournament · tables

value €234M · value #6 · Elo #9

2–1Portugal win

value €45M · value #20 · Elo #13

Model P(result)

49.8%

model probability of the observed score

Upset index

1.01

−log₂ P(observed)

Elo gap

1951 vs 1861

Stage

Group

2006 World Cup