🇨🇷 Costa Rica 1–0 Italy 🇮🇹

2014 World Cup · Group. Result scored against the Elo→Poisson model. tournament · tables

value €30M · value #29 · Elo #26

1–0Costa Rica win

value €323M · value #8 · Elo #12

Model P(result)

18.6%

model probability of the observed score

Upset index

2.42

−log₂ P(observed)

Elo gap

141

1780 vs 1921

Stage

Group

2014 World Cup