🇮🇹 Italy 2–1 England 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿

2014 World Cup · Group. Result scored against the Elo→Poisson model. tournament · tables

value €323M · value #8 · Elo #12

2–1Italy win

value €334M · value #7 · Elo #7

Model P(result)

30.3%

model probability of the observed score

Upset index

1.72

−log₂ P(observed)

Elo gap

1887 vs 1931

Stage

Group

2014 World Cup