🇺🇾 Uruguay 1–0 Italy 🇮🇹
2014 World Cup · Group. tournament · tables
🇺🇾 Uruguay value €218M · value #10 · Elo #10
Edinson Cavani €60M Luis Suárez €52M Diego Godín €20M 1–0 Uruguay win
🇮🇹 Italy value €323M · value #8 · Elo #12
Mario Balotelli €30M Claudio Marchisio €28M Giorgio Chiellini €24M Goals
Uruguay ▲ Italy ▼ 0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90' Diego Godín 81' 81 Godín
Starting line-ups
List Pitch
🇺🇾 Uruguay
Fernando Muslera · GK 1 Muslera José Giménez · CB 13 Giménez Martín Cáceres · RB 22 Cáceres Diego Godín · CB 3 Godín Álvaro Pereira · LB 6 Pereira Nicolás Lodeiro · AM 14 Lodeiro Egidio Arévalo · CM 17 Arévalo Álvaro González · RM 20 González Cristian Rodríguez · LM 7 Rodríguez Edinson Cavani · CF 21 Cavani Luis Suárez · CF 9 Suárez 🇮🇹 Italy
Gianluigi Buffon · GK 1 Buffon Andrea Barzagli · CB 15 Barzagli Leonardo Bonucci · CB 19 Bonucci Giorgio Chiellini · CB 3 Chiellini Mattia De Sciglio · LM 2 Sciglio Andrea Pirlo · AM 21 Pirlo Marco Verratti · CM 23 Verratti Matteo Darmian · RM 4 Darmian Claudio Marchisio · CM 8 Marchisio Ciro Immobile · SS 17 Immobile Mario Balotelli · CF 9 Balotelli Players sit in vertical bands (GK · defence · midfield · attack) by their listed position — no
left/right placement is inferred. Order within a band is squad-sheet order, not a formation.
Pre-match model (Elo→Poisson, 90-min W/D/L)
🇺🇾 Uruguay 37.1% draw 27.0% 35.9% Italy 🇮🇹
Model P(result)
37.1%
P of the observed 90-min outcome
Upset rank
#204
of 487 · −log₂ P
Upset index
1.43
−log₂ P(observed)
Uruguay's run L 🇨🇷 1–3 Costa Rica, Group W 🏴 2–1 England, Group W 🇮🇹 1–0 Italy, Group L 🇨🇴 0–2 Colombia, Round of 16 Italy's run W 🏴 2–1 England, Group L 🇨🇷 0–1 Costa Rica, Group L 🇺🇾 0–1 Uruguay, Group
Head-to-head at the World Cup No prior World Cup meetings.