🇦🇷 Argentina 1–1 Iceland 🇮🇸

2018 World Cup · Group. Result scored against the Elo→Poisson model. tournament · tables

value €699M · value #7 · Elo #5

1–1draw

value €76M · value #24 · Elo #20

Model P(result)

21.0%

model probability of the observed score

Upset index

2.25

−log₂ P(observed)

Elo gap

220

1984 vs 1764

Stage

Group

2018 World Cup