🇭🇷 Croatia 2–1 Iceland 🇮🇸

2018 World Cup · Group. Result scored against the Elo→Poisson model. tournament · tables

value €364M · value #10 · Elo #14

2–1Croatia win

value €76M · value #24 · Elo #20

Model P(result)

67.8%

model probability of the observed score

Upset index

0.56

−log₂ P(observed)

Elo gap

222

1943 vs 1721

Stage

Group

2018 World Cup