🇭🇷 Croatia 2–1 Iceland 🇮🇸
2018 World Cup · Group. tournament · tables
🇭🇷 Croatia value €364M · value #10 · Elo #14
Ivan Rakitić €50M Ivan Perišić €40M Mateo Kovačić €30M 2–1 Croatia win
🇮🇸 Iceland value €76M · value #24 · Elo #20
Gylfi Sigurðsson €30M Jóhann Berg Guðmundsson €10M Alfreð Finnbogason €10M Goals
Croatia ▲ Iceland ▼ 0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90' Milan Badelj 53' 53 Badelj Ivan Perišić 90' 90 Perišić Gylfi Sigurðsson 76' (pen) 76 Sigurðsson
Starting line-ups
List Pitch
🇭🇷 Croatia
Lovre Kalinić · GK 12 Kalinić Tin Jedvaj · RB 13 Jedvaj Duje Ćaleta-Car · CB 15 Ćaleta-Car Josip Pivarić · LB 22 Pivarić Vedran Ćorluka · CB 5 Ćorluka Luka Modrić · CM 10 Modrić Milan Badelj · CM 19 Badelj Mateo Kovačić · AM 8 Kovačić Marko Pjaca · RW 20 Pjaca Ivan Perišić · LW 4 Perišić Andrej Kramarić · CF 9 Kramarić 🇮🇸 Iceland
Hannes Þór Halldórsson · GK 1 Halldórsson Hörður Björgvin Magnússon · LB 18 Magnússon Birkir Már Sævarsson · RB 2 Sævarsson Sverrir Ingi Ingason · CB 5 Ingason Ragnar Sigurðsson · CB 6 Sigurðsson Gylfi Sigurðsson · AM 10 Sigurðsson Aron Gunnarsson · CM 17 Gunnarsson Emil Hallfreðsson · CM 20 Hallfreðsson Alfreð Finnbogason · CF 11 Finnbogason Jóhann Berg Guðmundsson · RW 7 Guðmundsson Birkir Bjarnason · LW 8 Bjarnason Players sit in vertical bands (GK · defence · midfield · attack) by their listed position — no
left/right placement is inferred. Order within a band is squad-sheet order, not a formation.
Pre-match model (Elo→Poisson, 90-min W/D/L)
🇭🇷 Croatia 67.7% draw 20.9% 11.4% Iceland 🇮🇸
Model P(result)
67.8%
P of the observed 90-min outcome
Upset rank
#384
of 487 · −log₂ P
Upset index
0.56
−log₂ P(observed)
Croatia's run W 🇳🇬 2–0 Nigeria, Group W 🇦🇷 3–0 Argentina, Group W 🇮🇸 2–1 Iceland, Group D 🇩🇰 1–1 Denmark, Round of 16 D 🇷🇺 2–2 Russia, Quarter-final W 🏴 2–1 England, Semi-final L 🇫🇷 2–4 France, Final Iceland's run D 🇦🇷 1–1 Argentina, Group L 🇳🇬 0–2 Nigeria, Group L 🇭🇷 1–2 Croatia, Group
Head-to-head at the World Cup No prior World Cup meetings.