🇫🇷 France 4–3 Argentina 🇦🇷

2018 World Cup · Round of 16. Result scored against the Elo→Poisson model. tournament · tables

value €1080M · value #1 · Elo #4

4–3France win

value €699M · value #7 · Elo #5

Model P(result)

49.8%

model probability of the observed score

Upset index

1.01

−log₂ P(observed)

Elo gap

2006 vs 1916

Stage

Round of 16

2018 World Cup