🇪🇨 Ecuador 1–1 Netherlands 🇳🇱

2022 World Cup · Group. Result scored against the Elo→Poisson model. tournament · tables

value €146M · value #26 · Elo #15

1–1draw

value €587M · value #8 · Elo #4

Model P(result)

22.7%

model probability of the observed score

Upset index

2.14

−log₂ P(observed)

Elo gap

180

1870 vs 2050

Stage

Group

2022 World Cup