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2026 World Cup · Group. Result scored against the Elo→Poisson model. tournament · tables

value €20M · value #48 · Elo #48

1–1draw

value €332M · value #20 · Elo #17

Model P(result)

10.4%

model probability of the observed score

Upset index

3.26

−log₂ P(observed)

Elo gap

470

1421 vs 1891

Stage

Group

2026 World Cup