🇸🇪 Sweden 5–1 Tunisia 🇹🇳 2026 · live

2026 World Cup · Group. Result scored against the Elo→Poisson model. tournament · tables

value €409M · value #15 · Elo #33

5–1Sweden win

value €70M · value #37 · Elo #38

Model P(result)

48.9%

model probability of the observed score

Upset index

1.03

−log₂ P(observed)

Elo gap

1712 vs 1628

Stage

Group

2026 World Cup