🇯🇵 Japan 1–1 Sweden 🇸🇪 2026 · live

2026 World Cup · Group. Result scored against the Elo→Poisson model. tournament · tables

value €271M · value #22 · Elo #14

1–1draw

value €409M · value #15 · Elo #33

Model P(result)

21.9%

model probability of the observed score

Upset index

2.19

−log₂ P(observed)

Elo gap

198

1925 vs 1727

Stage

Group

2026 World Cup