🇳🇱 Netherlands 3–1 Tunisia 🇹🇳 2026 · live

2026 World Cup · Group. Result scored against the Elo→Poisson model. tournament · tables

value €754M · value #8 · Elo #8

3–1Netherlands win

value €70M · value #37 · Elo #38

Model P(result)

84.6%

model probability of the observed score

Upset index

0.24

−log₂ P(observed)

Elo gap

402

1972 vs 1570

Stage

Group

2026 World Cup