🇯🇵 Japan 4–0 Tunisia 🇹🇳 2026 · live

2026 World Cup · Group. Result scored against the Elo→Poisson model. tournament · tables

value €271M · value #22 · Elo #14

4–0Japan win

value €70M · value #37 · Elo #38

Model P(result)

78.6%

model probability of the observed score

Upset index

0.35

−log₂ P(observed)

Elo gap

325

1910 vs 1585

Stage

Group

2026 World Cup