🇳🇱 Netherlands 5–1 Sweden 🇸🇪 2026 · live

2026 World Cup · Group. Result scored against the Elo→Poisson model. tournament · tables

value €754M · value #8 · Elo #8

5–1Netherlands win

value €409M · value #15 · Elo #33

Model P(result)

63.6%

model probability of the observed score

Upset index

0.65

−log₂ P(observed)

Elo gap

189

1944 vs 1755

Stage

Group

2026 World Cup