🇮🇷 Iran 2–2 New Zealand 🇳🇿 2026 · live

2026 World Cup · Group. Result scored against the Elo→Poisson model. tournament · tables

value €32M · value #44 · Elo #27

2–2draw

value €34M · value #43 · Elo #43

Model P(result)

21.4%

model probability of the observed score

Upset index

2.22

−log₂ P(observed)

Elo gap

210

1772 vs 1562

Stage

Group

2026 World Cup