🇧🇪 Belgium 5–1 New Zealand 🇳🇿 2026 · live

2026 World Cup · Group. Result scored against the Elo→Poisson model. tournament · tables

value €548M · value #10 · Elo #15

5–1Belgium win

value €34M · value #43 · Elo #43

Model P(result)

78.1%

model probability of the observed score

Upset index

0.36

−log₂ P(observed)

Elo gap

320

1869 vs 1549

Stage

Group

2026 World Cup