🇵🇹 Portugal 2–1 Croatia 🇭🇷 2026 · live

2026 World Cup · Round of 32. Result scored against the Elo→Poisson model. tournament · tables

value €1006M · value #4 · Elo #6

2–1Portugal win

value €387M · value #16 · Elo #12

Model P(result)

49.2%

model probability of the observed score

Upset index

1.02

−log₂ P(observed)

Elo gap

1990 vs 1904

Stage

Round of 32

2026 World Cup