🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 England 4–2 Croatia 🇭🇷 2026 · live

2026 World Cup · Group. Result scored against the Elo→Poisson model. tournament · tables

value €1358M · value #2 · Elo #4

4–2England win

value €387M · value #16 · Elo #12

Model P(result)

53.1%

model probability of the observed score

Upset index

0.91

−log₂ P(observed)

Elo gap

113

2024 vs 1911

Stage

Group

2026 World Cup