🏴 England 4–2 Croatia 🇭🇷 2026 · live
2026 World Cup · Group. tournament · tables
🏴 England value €1358M · value #2 · Elo #4
Jude Bellingham €130M Declan Rice €120M Bukayo Saka €110M 4–2 England win
🇭🇷 Croatia value €387M · value #16 · Elo #12
Joško Gvardiol €70M Luka Vušković €60M Josip Stanišić €40M Goals
England ▲ Croatia ▼ 0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90' Harry Kane 12' (pen) 12 Kane Harry Kane 42' (pen) 42 Kane Jude Bellingham 47' 47 Bellingham Marcus Rashford 85' 85 Rashford Martin Baturina 36' 36 Baturina Petar Musa 45+5' 50 Musa
Starting line-ups
List Pitch
🏴 England
Jordan Pickford · GK 1 Pickford Ezri Konsa · CB 2 Konsa Reece James · RB 24 James Nico O'Reilly · LB 3 O'Reilly John Stones · CB 5 Stones Jude Bellingham · AM 10 Bellingham Declan Rice · CM 4 Rice Elliot Anderson · CM 8 Anderson Anthony Gordon · LW 18 Gordon Noni Madueke · RW 20 Madueke Harry Kane · CF 9 Kane 🇭🇷 Croatia
Dominik Livaković · GK 1 Livaković Luka Vušković · CB 22 Vušković Joško Gvardiol · CB 4 Gvardiol Josip Šutalo · CB 6 Šutalo Luka Modrić · CM 10 Modrić Ivan Perišić · LM 14 Perišić Mario Pašalić · CM 15 Pašalić Martin Baturina · LF 16 Baturina Petar Sučić · RF 17 Sučić Josip Stanišić · RM 2 Stanišić Petar Musa · CF 26 Musa Players sit in vertical bands (GK · defence · midfield · attack) by their listed position — no
left/right placement is inferred. Order within a band is squad-sheet order, not a formation.
Pre-match model (Elo→Poisson, 90-min W/D/L)
🏴 England 53.1% draw 25.2% 21.7% Croatia 🇭🇷
Model P(result)
53.1%
P of the observed 90-min outcome
Upset rank
#284
of 487 · −log₂ P
Upset index
0.91
−log₂ P(observed)
England's run W 🇭🇷 4–2 Croatia, Group D 🇬🇭 0–0 Ghana, Group W 🇵🇦 2–0 Panama, Group W 🇨🇩 2–1 DR Congo, Round of 32 W 🇲🇽 3–2 Mexico, Round of 16 W 🇳🇴 2–1 Norway, Quarter-final L 🇦🇷 1–2 Argentina, Semi-final W 🇫🇷 6–4 France, Third place Croatia's run L 🏴 2–4 England, Group W 🇵🇦 1–0 Panama, Group W 🇬🇭 2–1 Ghana, Group L 🇵🇹 1–2 Portugal, Round of 32
Head-to-head at the World Cup