🇪🇸 Spain 1–0 Portugal 🇵🇹 2026 · live

2026 World Cup · Round of 16. Result scored against the Elo→Poisson model. tournament · tables

value €1223M · value #3 · Elo #1

1–0Spain win

value €1006M · value #4 · Elo #6

Model P(result)

57.8%

model probability of the observed score

Upset index

0.79

−log₂ P(observed)

Elo gap

146

2159 vs 2013

Stage

Round of 16

2026 World Cup