🇲🇽 Mexico 1–0 Germany 🇩🇪

2018 World Cup · Group. Result scored against the Elo→Poisson model. tournament · tables

value €155M · value #19 · Elo #15

1–0Mexico win

value €883M · value #4 · Elo #2

Model P(result)

11.0%

model probability of the observed score

Upset index

3.19

−log₂ P(observed)

Elo gap

227

1849 vs 2076

Stage

Group

2018 World Cup