🇺🇸 United States 4–1 Paraguay 🇵🇾 2026 · live

2026 World Cup · Group. Result scored against the Elo→Poisson model. tournament · tables

value €386M · value #17 · Elo #31

4–1United States win

value €154M · value #30 · Elo #20

Model P(result)

22.3%

model probability of the observed score

Upset index

2.17

−log₂ P(observed)

Elo gap

108

1726 vs 1834

Stage

Group

2026 World Cup