🇺🇸 United States 1–4 Belgium 🇧🇪 2026 · live

2026 World Cup · Round of 16. Result scored against the Elo→Poisson model. tournament · tables

value €386M · value #17 · Elo #31

1–4Belgium win

value €548M · value #10 · Elo #15

Model P(result)

53.0%

model probability of the observed score

Upset index

0.92

−log₂ P(observed)

Elo gap

112

1798 vs 1910

Stage

Round of 16

2026 World Cup