🇩🇪 Germany 1–1 Paraguay 🇵🇾 2026 · live

2026 World Cup · Round of 32. Result scored against the Elo→Poisson model. tournament · tables

value €947M · value #5 · Elo #10

1–1draw

value €154M · value #30 · Elo #20

Model P(result)

25.5%

model probability of the observed score

Upset index

1.97

−log₂ P(observed)

Elo gap

101

1916 vs 1815

Stage

Round of 32

2026 World Cup