🇫🇷 France 1–0 Paraguay 🇵🇾 2026 · live

2026 World Cup · Round of 16. Result scored against the Elo→Poisson model. tournament · tables

value €1523M · value #1 · Elo #3

1–0France win

value €154M · value #30 · Elo #20

Model P(result)

77.3%

model probability of the observed score

Upset index

0.37

−log₂ P(observed)

Elo gap

311

2134 vs 1823

Stage

Round of 16

2026 World Cup