🇧🇷 Brazil 2–1 Japan 🇯🇵 2026 · live

2026 World Cup · Round of 32. Result scored against the Elo→Poisson model. tournament · tables

value €928M · value #6 · Elo #5

2–1Brazil win

value €271M · value #22 · Elo #14

Model P(result)

51.1%

model probability of the observed score

Upset index

0.97

−log₂ P(observed)

Elo gap

2009 vs 1910

Stage

Round of 32

2026 World Cup