🇨🇦 Canada 1–0 South Africa 🇿🇦 2026 · live

2026 World Cup · Round of 32. Result scored against the Elo→Poisson model. tournament · tables

🇨🇦 Canada
value €199M · value #26 · Elo #23
1–0Canada win
🇿🇦 South Africa
value €49M · value #40 · Elo #45
Model P(result)
61.5%
model probability of the observed score
Upset index
0.70
−log₂ P(observed)
Elo gap
173
1748 vs 1575
Stage
Round of 32
2026 World Cup

Squads: Canada 2026 · South Africa 2026