🇲🇽 Mexico 2–0 South Africa 🇿🇦 2026 · live

2026 World Cup · Group. Result scored against the Elo→Poisson model. tournament · tables

value €192M · value #27 · Elo #18

2–0Mexico win

value €49M · value #40 · Elo #45

Model P(result)

81.4%

model probability of the observed score

Upset index

0.30

−log₂ P(observed)

Elo gap

358

1875 vs 1517

Stage

Group

2026 World Cup