🇸🇪 Sweden 1–0 Paraguay 🇵🇾

2006 World Cup · Group. Result scored against the Elo→Poisson model. tournament · tables

value €108M · value #11 · Elo #11

1–0Sweden win

value €23M · value #26 · Elo #22

Model P(result)

47.4%

model probability of the observed score

Upset index

1.08

−log₂ P(observed)

Elo gap

1838 vs 1764

Stage

Group

2006 World Cup