🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 England 1–0 Paraguay 🇵🇾

2006 World Cup · Group. Result scored against the Elo→Poisson model. tournament · tables

value €342M · value #3 · Elo #3

1–0England win

value €23M · value #26 · Elo #22

Model P(result)

64.2%

model probability of the observed score

Upset index

0.64

−log₂ P(observed)

Elo gap

193

1972 vs 1779

Stage

Group

2006 World Cup